Top Hat HAT

The agent market has been bleeding for 3-4 weeks straight. So.....What's next? 🧵 t.co/Mra10r8u09 2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump

Solana & Base Total Agent Market Cap both declined at a similar rate of 58% since the start of Jan The dominance gap between Solana & Base is getting smaller from $2.1BN to $900mn The gap will continue to be shorter as @virtuals_io starts its expansion on Solana 2/15 t.co/1juoL5lDOp 2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump

Category Performance during the last 30d 1. DeFAI - Abstraction Layers - $GRIFFAIN -53% ($208mn) - $ANON +640% ($116mn) - $LMT -50% ($68mn) - $GRIFT +15% ($38mn) - $BUZZ +1500% ($47mn) - $NEUR -86% ($7.8mn) Sector with the most solid pa notably w/ $ANON, $BUZZ, $GRIFT 3/15 2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump

2. DeFAI - Trading Agents - $SYMP +520% ($8.3mn) - $ASYM -40% ($7.3mn) - $KUDAI +180% ($6mn) - $TONY +72% ($6mn) - $LAY -17% ($4.6mn) - $GEKKO -83% ($4.6mn) - $PPCOIN -80% ($2.4mn) Best looking chart goes to $TONY w/ huge liquidity & catalyst w/ Cod3x Create platform 4/15 2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump

3. Gaming x AI - $HYPER -95% ($6mn) - $REALIS -78% ($5mn) - $BNTY -23% ($9.8mn) Sector w/ highest drawdown—top 2 experienced sharp drawdown. $BNTY remains at similar level to early Jan due to @indiedotfun platform & games rollouts (agents coming soon) 5/15 2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump

4. Launchpad / Distribution Network - $VIRTUAL -61% ($2BN) - $HAT -80% ($19mn) - $MATES -49% ($39mn) - $VVAIFU -88% ($15mn) - $BID -45%+ down from first day of launch ($113mn) $VIRTUAL clearest catalysts w/ decentralized QE & Solana expansion 6/15 2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump

5. Framework - $A16Z -77% ($600mn) - $ARC -45% ($225mm) - $ZEREBRO -90% ($76mn) - $GAME -80% ($72mn) - $PIPPIN +320% ($47mn) $ARC stands out the most in term of adoption growth, currently standing at 2.7k GitHub stars $A16Z remains top framework at 13.6k stars, v2 soon 7/15 2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump

6. Data - $COOKIE -61% ($94mn) - $AIAI -74% down from launch day ($10mn) - $NOMAI -80% ($5mn) $COOKIE remains the most widely used dashboard for human + DataSwarm for agents Cookie Swarm of Agents are live ➔ team of 7 aixbt on steroids 8/15 t.co/Z7a3HeaC7h 2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump

7. InvestmentDAO Too many to highlight in this category, majority faced 75-90% draw down in the past 30d @daosdotworld has been the most interesting on the type/quality of DAOs launching - @YapTradeDAO — OTC marketplace for Kaito yaps - @hardwAIreDAO — Investing in GPU 9/15 2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump

Many small categories such as alpha-focused KOLs, personality-focused KOLs / 3D models, Developer tools, TEE, Swarm, Music agents, but I'll stop here We have gone from a hundred agents 3 months ago to thousands There are just too many, capital & mindshare is fragmented 10/15 2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump

Agent fragmentation is exacerbated by no-code builder platforms that enables anyone to easily create conversational agents in seconds We had liquidity & mindshare fragmentation across L1/L2s, now we have the same issue in AI agent market 11/15 2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump

What's Next? - Natural Selection - Consolidation We've gone through 3 weeks of natural selection process, the teams that stop building / slow down will die out, leaving high-quality, persistent team building through the mini agent bear 12/15 2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump

From then on, consolidation will happen with clear winners getting stronger / consolidated mindshare & capital We're starting to see bits & pieces of this playing out where degens start consolidating their bags to 2-5 picks instead of 15-20 13/15 2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump

This consolidation will result in strong rebound for quality teams that continue to relentlessly ship new features / new product without stopping Fundamental agent coins will emerge as well as the ecosystem that houses, incubates, and showcases them 14/15 2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump

The dust is settling. The noise is fading. What’s left are The builders. The real quality players. The agents that actually matter. Wondering which projects they are? Pay attention to my content ser, the alpha is right in front of you 15/15 2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump

Thanks for reading till the end. For more on Agent Fragmentation. Check out - t.co/dIusb5AevE - t.co/vv7wrQgQpz And don't forget to follow me @Defi0xJeff for more Alpha & Analysis (if you haven't already) Like/Retweet the first tweet below if you can: t.co/rSK0NO34OW 2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump

Both, - Conversational agents aren't that useful / majority aren't sophisticated & sounds like a bot - Too many no-code builder tools enable the creation of these basic conversational agents - Many promises something different but they're still not justified for 8-9 figs val 2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump

I believe 2 (could be wrong) 1. The start of @truth_terminal and the rise of @virtuals_io 2. The emergence of new narratives and ecosystem leaders which lead to the issue of Agent Fragmentation Next wave will likely be consolidation / abstraction 2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump

Thank you ser 🫡 2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump

Let's look at what has transpired in the past month Total Market Cap went down from $21.5BN to $9.5BN, ~55.8% retracement across the board Almost all of the agents retraced 20-90% during the last 30d making this the largest drawdown we've seen in the sector 1/15 t.co/Sk5lIGwgev 2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump2VFK9h3fBrVJNficF6Yu4xkADhL4Mt7uFiSZhRpepump